Update midnight, Saturday, Sept. 23:
Power outages affecting 65 people in Springs and 97 customers in Northville were reported late Saturday night. Crews were on scene at midnight and power is expected to be restored to those areas overnight, according to PSEG-Long Island. Power outages can be reported here.
Update 6:30 p.m. Saturday, Sept. 23:
The gale warning for the waters surrounding the East End remains in effect until 6 a.m. Sunday, with northeast winds of 25 to 35 knots, gusting to 40, and ocean seas of 9 to 13 feet. Gusts are expected to subside to 25 to 30 knots Sunday evening into Monday, according to the National Weather Service’s Saturday evening update on the storm, when an additional 1 to 2 inches of rain were expected through Monday afternoon. A high surf advisory remains in effect until 8 p.m. Sunday, with large breaking waves of 6 to 11 feet likely. The coastal flood statement for northeast Suffolk is expecting “brief minor flooding of the most vulnerable locations near the waterfront and shoreline, due to elevated water levels and 3 to 6 feet breaking surf. Breaking waves will also result in beach erosion and flooding, particularly at Orient Point.”
PSEG Long Island was reporting just two localized outages on the East End affecting eight customers in Springs as of 6:30 p.m. Saturday.
Update Noon Saturday, Sept. 23:
We’re still expecting 2 to 3 inches of rain with this storm, 1 to 2 inches of which will fall today, with rain continuing through Sunday night, according to the National Weather Service’s briefing this morning. Winds are expected to increase to 25 to 30 miles per hour throughout the day and into tonight, with gusts to 40, with gusts gradually subsiding to 30 miles per hour Sunday into Monday.
“Localized minor coastal flooding” is now the forecast for much of Long Island Sunday afternoon and evening, with “possibly a more widespread minor coastal flooding threat for early next week.”
Peak breaking surf of 6 to 10 feet on the ocean will be today and into Sunday morning, subsiding to 4 to 8 feet Sunday into Monday.
“On Sunday, Ophelia’s circulation is forecast to become increasingly elongated as it interacts with a pre-existing frontal boundary offshore of the mid-Atlantic coastline,” according to the National Hurricane Center’s 11 a.m. Saturday forecast discussion. “Most of the model guidance shows Ophelia merging with the baroclinic zone in about 24 houris, marking its transition to an extratropical cyclone.”
Update 6:30 a.m. Saturday, Sept. 23:
The center of Ophelia was approaching the North Carolina coast as of the National Hurricane Center’s 5 a.m. report. Tropical storm-force winds extend outward up to 310 miles from the center.
Update 2:30 p.m. Friday, Sept. 22:
With maximum sustained winds of 60 miles per hour, the tropical cyclone become a tropical storm, named Ophelia, Friday afternoon. As of the National Hurricane Center’s 2 p.m. Friday briefing, the storm was about 150 miles southeast of Cape Fear, North Carolina, moving toward the north-northwest at about 12 miles per hour. “This general motion is expected to continue during the next day or so, followed by a slight turn toward the north.” Tropical storm force winds extend outward 275 miles from the center of the storm, which is expected to approach the coast of North Carolina tonight, before hitting southeastern Virginia and the Delmarva Peninsula Saturday and Sunday.
There is a small craft advisory in effect from Sandy Hook, New Jersey to Montauk Point, out 20 nautical miles through 6 a.m. Saturday, and a gale warning in effect from 6 a.m. Saturday to 6 a.m. Sunday. Northeast winds of 20 to 30 knots, with gusts up to 40 knots and seas 8 to 13 feet are expected.
A high rip current risk is in effect through Sunday evening, a high surf advisory is in effect from 6 a.m. Saturday through 11 a.m. Sunday and a coastal flood statement is in effect from 1 to 7 p.m. Saturday. “Brief minor flooding of the most vulnerable locations near the waterfront and shoreline” is expected Saturday afternoon and evening during the time of high tide.
Update 11:30 a.m. Friday, Sept. 22:
The North Fork Environmental Council’s beach cleanups at Iron Pier Beach and Breakwater Beach, rescheduled for Saturday, Sept. 23 from last weekend due to Hurricane Lee, have again been postponed. No new date has yet been announced.
No new watches or warnings had been issued as of 11:30 a.m., and the National Weather Service is now saying the heaviest rainfall associated with this storm will be between 10 a.m. and 6 p.m. Saturday.
As of the National Hurricane Center’s 11 a.m. Friday Forecast Discussion, “the cyclone appears likely to strengthen during the next 12 hours over the warm Gulf Stream waters. The more organized convective structure should also facilitate its transition to a tropical storm during the next six to 12 hours as it starts to become separated from its frontal features and develops a small inner core.”
9 a.m. Friday, Sept. 22:
This weekend’s storm, dubbed “Potential Tropical Cyclone 16” by the National Hurricane Center, is expected to bring winds, rain, high surf and coastal flooding to the East End this evening through Sunday, according to a 6:23 a.m. briefing from the National Weather Service Friday.
We’re expecting two to three inches of rain Saturday through Sunday night, winds peaking to 40 miles per hour on Saturday (“highest across coastal locations”), with “potential for scattered downed tree branches due to saturated soil and full foliage.” Coastal flooding of 1 to 1.5 feet “is likely along vulnerable locations” including “southern and eastern bays of Long Island with the Saturday afternoon/evening high tidal cycle. The potential for moderate coastal flooding is low at this time,” according to the briefing.
The National Weather Service expects dangerous rip currents and rough surf through the weekend, with breaking surf likely building to 5 to 10 feet Friday into Saturday.
Greenport’s East End Seaport Museum’s annual Maritime Festival, scheduled for this Saturday and Sunday, is usually held rain or shine, but all the festivities except for the Friday night Land and Sea Gala have been cancelled due to the risks associated with the storm, “out of an abundance of caution.” The gala, at Crabby Jerry’s at the foot of Main Street Friday evening, will go on as scheduled. The San Gennaro Feast of the Hamptons in Hampton Bays, originally scheduled for this weekend, has been rescheduled for Oct. 14 and 15 due to this weekend’s weather. East Hampton’s 375th Anniversary Parade scheduled for Saturday is being postponed, though a new date has not yet been announced. The East Hampton High School Homecoming Football Game scheduled for 1 p.m. was still on as of Thursday evening.
The storm, which is currently centered off the coast of the Carolinas, with maximum sustained winds of 50 miles per hour “is gradually organizing and strengthening this morning,” according to the National Hurricane Center’s 5 a.m. forecast discussion on Friday. “The system has been moving erratically overnight, but recent satellite images suggest that it is now moving northward at about 7 knots… taking the cyclone inland over eastern North Carolina early Saturday and over portions of the mid-Atlantic Saturday night and Sunday.”
“The system will likely strengthen a little more before it reaches the coast of North Carolina. After landfall, land interaction, dry air and strong shear should lead to weakening and cause the system to transition back to an extratropical low in a couple of days,” according to the National Hurricane Center. “It should be noted that the cyclone has a large wind field, and tropical storm-force winds will begin well ahead of the center.”
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the East Coast from North Carolina to Delaware.
The National Weather Service had not yet issued watches, warnings or coastal flood alerts for our area as of 9 a.m. Friday. We’ll update this post with any changes. Below are the times of high tide on the East End over the next three days:
Plum Gut Harbor: 3:25 a.m., 3:53 p.m.
Montauk Harbor: 2:33 a.m., 3:01 p.m.
Greenport: 4:02 a.m., 4:30 p.m.
Mattituck Inlet: 4:58 a.m., 5:14 p.m.
Sag Harbor: 3:57 a.m., 4:25 p.m.
New Suffolk: 5:24 a.m., 5:52 p.m.
South Jamesport: 5:31 a.m., 5:59 p.m.
Shinn. Bay Entrance: 2:17 a.m., 2:47 p.m.
Shinn. Inlet: 12:26 a.m., 12:56 p.m.
Plum Gut Harbor: 4:35 a.m., 5:06 p.m.
Montauk Harbor: 3:43 a.m., 4:14 p.m.
Greenport: 5:12 a.m., 5:43 p.m.
Mattituck Inlet: 6:02 a.m., 6:21 p.m.
Sag Harbor: 5:07 a.m., 5:38 p.m.
New Suffolk: 6:34 a.m., 7:05 p.m.
South Jamesport: 6:41 a.m., 7:12 p.m.
Shinn. Bay Entrance: 3:23 a.m., 3:53 p.m.
Shinn. Inlet: 1:32 a.m., 2:02 p.m.
Plum Gut Harbor: 5:44 a.m., 6:13 p.m.
Montauk Harbor: 4:52 a.m., 5:21 p.m.
Greenport: 6:21 a.m., 6:50 p.m.
Mattituck Inlet: 7:08 a.m., 7:30 p.m.
Sag Harbor: 6:16 a.m., 6:45 p.m.
New Suffolk: 7:43 a.m., 8:12 p.m.
South Jamesport: 7:50 a.m., 8:19 p.m.
Shinn. Bay Entrance: 4:32 a.m., 5:02 p.m.
Shinn. Inlet: 2:41 a.m., 3:11 p.m.