Update 7:20 a.m. Feb. 13:
As of the National Weather Service’s 5 a.m. briefing this morning, we are now expecting 5 to 8 inches of snow to be ‘likely’ today, with a “reasonable worst case of 9 to 11 inches.” NWS says snowfall forecasts on Long Island “continue to have quite a bit of spread. Snowfall amounts in this area will depend on timing of changeover from rain to heavy snow, and location/duration of any heavy snow banding.”
Original Story Below:
The winter storm dubbed Lorraine is now expect to dump between 6 and 12 inches of snow on the East End throughout the day Tuesday, closing schools and cancelling events throughout the region and causing widespread minor coastal flooding.
The National Weather Service is predicting 6 to 10 inches of snow “likely” Tuesday on Long Island with the “reasonable worst case of 10 to 12 inches,” depending on the timing of rain turning to snow Tuesday morning, with a Winter Storm Warning in effect from 4 a.m. to 6 p.m. Tuesday.
The timing of the changeover from rain to heavy snow “will be critical to snowfall amounts,” according to the National Weather Service’s final briefing on the storm Monday afternoon. “An hour earlier (or later) transition than forecast could be the difference between 1 to 2 inches more (or less) of total snow accumulation.”
Snow is slated to fall the fastest Tuesday morning, with 1 to 2 inches per hour expected to fall during the morning hours. Winds are expected to be out fo the northeast early, switching to the north later in the day, with 20 to 25 mile per hour sustained winds and gusts from 35 to 40. Temperatures will hover in the mid-30s during the day, and the National Weather Service says thunder is possible with this storm. Temperatures will drop to the mid-20s overnight Tuesday into Wednesday, with the wind chill making if feel like between 15 and 20.
The East End under a Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 a.m. to 5 p.m. Tuesday. Expect around 1.5 to 2 feet of inundation above ground level in low lying, vulnerable areas. According to the National Weather Service, “several roads and low lying property including parking lots, parks, lawns and homes/businesses with basements near the waterfront will experience flooding, with scattered road closures likely. Vehicles parked in vulnerable areas near the waterfront may become flooded.”
Here are the times of high tide throughout the region:
Plum Gut Harbor: 12:18 p.m.
Montauk Harbor: 11:26 a.m., 11:56 p.m.
Greenport: 12:32 a.m., 12:55 p.m.
Mattituck Inlet: 1:28 a.m., 1:54 p.m.
Sag Harbor: 12:27 a.m., 12:50 p.m.
New Suffolk: 1:54 a.m., 2:17 p.m.
South Jamesport: 2:01 a.m., 2:24 p.m.
Shinn. Bay Entrance: 11:32 a.m.
Shinn. Inlet: 9:41 a.m., 10:13 p.m.
Public and private schools throughout the East End will be closed today, along with East Hampton Town offices. Riverhead Town offices have scheduled an 11 a.m. delayed opening, though they’re asking the public to stay tuned to the town’s website for updated information. The Southampton Town Board is planning to go ahead with its 1 p.m. meeting this afternoon, but is asking residents to consider attending via Zoom for their safety. We will update this post with further information as it becomes available.
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