Update Jan. 31, 7 p.m.:
The National Weather Service has upped its predicted snowfall totals, with up to 12 inches of snow now predicted on the North Fork, in Riverhead and the Central Pine Barrens, 6 to 8 inches throughout much of the South Fork and 4 inches in Montauk. Snow is expected to be heavy during the day and evening Monday, with 2 to 4 inches per hour and near blizzard conditions.
Original story follows:
The major winter storm dubbed Orlena is expected to drop up to 8 inches of snow on the East End Monday into Tuesday, with high northeast winds and coastal flooding of 2 to 3 feet above ground level during times of high tides.
Snowfall is expected to be lower farther east on the South Fork, with Montauk expecting snowfall totals of about 3 inches, according to the National Weather Service’s 7 a.m. Sunday report.
As of that report, the East End was under a coastal flood warning through 5 a.m. Tuesday and the waters off our shores are under a storm warming, meaning a storm and coastal flooding are expected within the next 24 hours.
Areas farther west on Long Island, in upstate New York and in coastal Connecticut are under a winter storm warning, expecting between 1 foot and 17 inches of snow.
The National Weather Service is predicting “moderate to locally major coastal flood impacts” and “areas of dune erosion and localized overwashes” along the South and East bays of Long Island during Monday’s daytime and overnight high tide cycles.
“This will result in numerous road closures and cause widespread flooding of low lying property including parking lots, parks, lawns and homes/businesses with basements near the waterfront,” according to the National Weather Service’s Coastal Flood advisory notice. “Vehicles parked in vulnerable areas near the waterfront will likely be flooded.”
Here are the high tides for Monday and Tuesday on the East End:
Plum Gut Harbor: 12:02 a.m., 12:17 p.m.
Montauk Harbor: 11:25 a.m., 11:57 p.m.
Greenport: 12:39 a.m., 12:54 p.m.
Mattituck Inlet: 1:32 a.m., 1:50 p.m.
Sag Harbor: 12:34 a.m., 12:49 p.m.
New Suffolk: 2:01 a.m., 2:!6 p.m.
South Jamesport: 2:08 a.m., 2:23 p.m.
Shinn. Bay Entrance: 11:20 a.m.
Shinn. Inlet: 9:29 a.m., 10:11 p.m.
Plum Gut Harbor: 12:49 a.m., 1:06 p.m.
Montauk Harbor: 12:14 p.m.
Greenport: 1:26 a.m., 1:43 p.m.
Mattituck Inlet: 2:19 a.m., 2:41 p.m.
Sag Harbor: 1:21 a.m., 1:38 p.m.
New Suffolk: 2:48 a.m., 3:05 p.m.
South Jamesport: 2:55 a.m., 3:12 p.m.
Shinn. Bay Entrance: 12:02 a.m., 12:12 p.m.
Shinn. Inlet: 10:21 a.m., 11:04 p.m.
The National Weather Service is anticipating gale to storm conditions in the waters off the East End, with seas of 4 to 8 feet on the Long Island Sound and 12 to 17 feet on the Atlantic Ocean Sunday night through Monday night.
Inland, we’re expecting sustained winds of 20 to 30 miles per hour, with gusts to 50 miles per hour and “near blizzard conditions possible along the coast Monday through Monday evening.”
The National Weather Service is expecting snowfall rates of 1 to 3 inches per hour Monday into Monday evening, with “near blizzard conditions possible along the coast Monday and Monday evening,” making travel “difficult to impossible.
The weather service forecasts the snow could begin to mix with rain and sleet into Tuesday morning.
Stay tuned to this post and to our Twitter account, @eastendbeacon, for more details throughout the storm.